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Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach

Ahmad, Salman and Razman, Mat Tahar (2012) Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach. In: International Conference on Environment, Energy and Biotechnology, 5-6 May 2012 , Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. .

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Abstract

Electricity has become an important source of energy for human development. Forecasting electricity demand plays a pivotal role in electricity planning. It provides a mechanism to have a balance between supply and demand. A system dynamics model is developed using population and per capita consumption of electricity to forecast electricity demand for coming 10 years. Malaysia is used as a case study. It is found that that by using two variables, a fairly accurate forecast can be obtained. The simulation model estimates that at the current rate of consumption and population growth there will be a need of 192.5trillionwatt-hour of electric energy in year 2021.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information: Published as Proceedings of 2012 International Conference on Environment, Energy and Biotechnology (ICEEB 2012)
Uncontrolled Keywords: System dynamics, Electricity, Long-term forecasting
Subjects: T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Faculty/Division: Faculty of Engineering Technology
Depositing User: Mr Salman Ahmad
Date Deposited: 15 May 2012 02:57
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2018 07:49
URI: http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462
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