Ahmad, Salman and Razman, Mat Tahar (2012) Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach. In: International Conference on Environment, Energy and Biotechnology , 5-6 May 2012 , Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. .
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Abstract
Electricity has become an important source of energy for human development. Forecasting electricity demand plays a pivotal role in electricity planning. It provides a mechanism to have a balance between supply and demand. A system dynamics model is developed using population and per capita consumption of electricity to forecast electricity demand for coming 10 years. Malaysia is used as a case study. It is found that that by using two variables, a fairly accurate forecast can be obtained. The simulation model estimates that at the current rate of consumption and population growth there will be a need of 192.5trillionwatt-hour of electric energy in year 2021.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Published as Proceedings of 2012 International Conference on Environment, Energy and Biotechnology (ICEEB 2012) |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | System dynamics, Electricity, Long-term forecasting |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering |
| Faculty/Division: | Faculty of Engineering Technology |
| Depositing User: | Mr Salman Ahmad |
| Date Deposited: | 15 May 2012 02:57 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Aug 2018 07:49 |
| URI: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462 |
| Download Statistic: | View Download Statistics |
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