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Ecotourism demand forecasting at National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang

Noratikah, Abu and Megat Muhammad Afif, Megat Muainuddin and Wan Nur Syahidah, Wan Yusoff and Zuhaimy, Ismai (2019) Ecotourism demand forecasting at National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang. In: The Ninth International Conference on Geotechnique, Construction Materials and Environment (GEOMATE 2019), 20-22 November 2019 , Tokyo, Japan. pp. 1-9.. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Tourism forecasting can lead to an important element in tourism industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government was worth it. From economy perspective, ecotourism is a growing business nowadays and can be an important indicator to the tourism industry. Hence, this study attempt to forecast the ecotourism product demand in Pahang based on number of tourist arrivals in National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang. Box-Jenkins (Seasonal ARIMA) model is used to make analysis and forecast of the number of international and domestic tourist since 2013 until present. The accuracy and validation of the results is measured using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation shows that Seasonal ARIMA models is effective for forecasting the number of tourist arrivals in National Park Kuala Tahan. The best model in forecasting ecotourism product demand in Pahang is   12 SARIMA 0,0,1 2,0,1 with MAPE value 13.92%.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Lecture)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Economy Perspective; Ecotourism; Tourism Industry; Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
Subjects: Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Faculty/Division: Faculty of Industrial Sciences And Technology
Depositing User: Pn. Hazlinda Abd Rahman
Date Deposited: 23 Dec 2019 03:14
Last Modified: 23 Dec 2019 03:14
URI: http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/26432
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