Abu, Noratikah and Megat Muainuddin, Megat Muhammad Afif and Wan Yusoff, Wan Nur Syahidah and Ismail, Zuhaimy (2019) Ecotourism demand forecasting at National Park, Kuala Tahan, in Pahang. In: 9th Int. Conf. on Geotechnique, Construction Materials and Environment , 20 - 22 November 2019 , Hotel Continental Fuchu in Tokyo, Japan. pp. 1266-1270.. ISBN 978-4-909106025 (Submitted)
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Abstract
Tourism forecasting can lead to an important element in tourism industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government was worth it. From economy perspective, ecotourism is a growing business nowadays and can be an important indicator to the tourism industry. Hence, this study attempt to forecast the ecotourism product demand in Pahang based on number of tourist arrivals in National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang. Box-Jenkins (Seasonal ARIMA) model is used to make analysis and forecast of the number of international and domestic tourist since 2013 until present. The accuracy and validation of the results is measured using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation shows that Seasonal ARIMA models is effective for forecasting the number of tourist arrivals in National Park Kuala Tahan. The best model in forecasting ecotourism product demand in Pahang is 12 SARIMA 0,0,1 2,0,1 with MAPE value 13.92%.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Lecture) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Ecotourism; Tourism industry; National Park Kuala Tahan; ARIMA |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Faculty/Division: | Center for Mathematical Science Faculty of Industrial Sciences And Technology Institute of Postgraduate Studies |
| Depositing User: | Dr. Noratikah Abu |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Oct 2022 07:19 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Oct 2022 07:19 |
| URI: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35137 |
| Download Statistic: | View Download Statistics |
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