New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets

Noratikah, Abu and Sarah, Mohd Khaidi and Noryanti, Muhammad (2021) New tourism product forecasting - A study of different potential markets. In: AIP Conference Proceedings; International Conference on Mathematical Sciences and Technology 2020: Sustainable Development of Mathematics and Mathematics in Sustainability Revolution, MATHTECH 2020 , 8 - 10 December 2020 , Penang, Malaysia. pp. 1-9., 2423 (070001). ISSN 0094-243X ISBN 9780735441668

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Abstract

Mushrooming of new tourism products in Malaysia and their shutdown in the short term are the sign of ineffective forecast. Besides, no new development in tourism products causes the decline of the number of visitors to the attractions. This study proposes an application of a grey Bass diffusion model to forecast the new tourism product using different market potential value. A potential market can provide valuable information for a good forecast. From the managements’ perspective, proper planning and development is done to maintain the places based on the forecast. Grey Bass diffusion model, a popular model in handling forecast of a new product with limited data, is expected to forecast two ecotourism resorts, Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya using different market potential value. Yearly data from 2014 until 2018 from both tourism products are collected. The values of potential markets are calculated from the percentage number of visitors to Raub district since the new tourism products are located in Raub, Pahang. This study indicates that different market potential give significant impact on the accurate forecast. The closer the value of potential market calculated from percentage to the actual value, the higher the accuracy of the forecast.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Lecture)
Additional Information:	Indexed by Scopus
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Tourism products; Ecotourism; Tourism forecasting
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Faculty/Division:	Institute of Postgraduate Studies Center for Mathematical Science
Depositing User:	Dr. Noratikah Abu
Date Deposited:	14 Mar 2022 08:42
Last Modified:	14 Mar 2022 08:42
URI:	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/32901
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