Nadia, . and Zikri, Afdol and Rizqina, Sila and Sukandar, Kamal Khairudin and Fakhruddin, Muhammad and Tay, Chai Jian and Nuraini, Nuning (2023) Data-driven generating operator in SEIRV model for COVID-19 transmission. Communication in Biomathematical Sciences, 6 (1). pp. 74-89. ISSN 2549-2896. (Published)
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Abstract
The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine has been extensively implemented through large-scale programs in numerous countries as a preventive measure against the resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In line with this vaccination effort, the Indonesian government has successfully inoculated over 74% of its population. Nevertheless, a significant decline in the duration of vaccine-induced immunity has raised concerns regarding the necessity of additional inoculations, such as booster shots. Prior to proceeding with further inoculation measures, it is imperative for the government to assess the existing level of herd immunity, specifically determining whether it has reached the desired threshold of 70%. To shed light on this matter, our objective is to ascertain the herd immunity level following the initial and subsequent vaccination programs, while also proposing an optimal timeframe for conducting additional inoculations. This study utilizes COVID-19 data from Jakarta and employs the SEIRV model, which integrates time-dependent parameters and incorporates an additional compartment to represent the vaccinated population. By formulating a dynamic generator based on the cumulative cases function, we are able to comprehensively evaluate the analytical and numerical aspects of all state dynamics. Simulation results reveal that the number of individuals protected by the vaccine increases following the vaccination program; however, this number subsequently declines due to the waning effect of the vaccine. Our estimates indicate that the vaccination program in Jakarta has achieved herd immunity levels exceeding 70% from October 2021 to February 2022, thus underscoring the necessity of rolling out further inoculations no later than February 2022.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Indexed by Scopus |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Boosters timing; COVID-19 vaccine rollout; Dynamic operator; Immunity waning |
| Subjects: | Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Faculty/Division: | Center for Mathematical Science |
| Depositing User: | Mr Muhamad Firdaus Janih@Jaini |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Apr 2024 06:39 |
| Last Modified: | 30 Apr 2024 06:39 |
| URI: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/40639 |
| Download Statistic: | View Download Statistics |
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