Wang, Wei and Ji, Chao and Li, Chuanqi and Wu, Wenxin and Anak Gisen, Jacqueline Isabella (2025) Source identification in river pollution incidents using a cellular automata model and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 32. pp. 12978-12991. ISSN 0944-1344. (Published)
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Abstract
Identification of contaminant sources in rivers is crucial for river protection and emergency response. This study presents an innovative approach for identifying river pollution sources by using Bayesian inference and cellular automata (CA) modelling. A general Bayesian framework is proposed that combines the CA model with observed data to identify unknown sources of river pollution. To reduce the computational burden of the Bayesian inference, a CA contaminant transport model is developed to efficiently simulate pollutant concentration values in the river. These simulated concentration values are then used to calculate the likelihood function of available measurements. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to produce the posterior distribution of contaminant source parameters, which is a sampling-based method that enables the estimation of complex posterior distributions. The suggested methodology is applied to a real case study of the Fen River in Yuncheng City, Shanxi Province, Northern China, and it estimates the release time, release mass, and source location with relative errors below 19%. The research indicates that the proposed methodology is an effective and flexible way to identify the location and concentrations of river contaminant sources.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Indexed by Scopus |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bayesian inference; Cellular automata; Contaminant source identification; MCMC; River pollution |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering |
| Faculty/Division: | Faculty of Civil Engineering Technology |
| Depositing User: | Mrs. NOOR FATEEHA MOHAMAD |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Jun 2025 02:18 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Jun 2025 02:18 |
| URI: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/44815 |
| Download Statistic: | View Download Statistics |
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