Hydrogen energy demand growth prediction and assessment (2021–2050) using a system thinking and system dynamics approach

Talal, Yusaf and Mohamd, Laimon and Waleed, Alrefae and Kadirgama, Kumaran and Hayder A., Dhahad and Ramasamy, Devarajan and Mohd Kamal, Kamarulzaman and Belal, Yousif (2022) Hydrogen energy demand growth prediction and assessment (2021–2050) using a system thinking and system dynamics approach. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 12 (2). pp. 1-16. ISSN 2076-3417. (Published)

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Adoption of hydrogen energy as an alternative to fossil fuels could be a major step towards decarbonising and fulfilling the needs of the energy sector. Hydrogen can be an ideal alternative for many fields compared with other alternatives. However, there are many potential environmental challenges that are not limited to production and distribution systems, but they also focus on how hydrogen is used through fuel cells and combustion pathways. The use of hydrogen has received little attention in research and policy, which may explain the widely claimed belief that nothing but water is released as a by-product when hydrogen energy is used. We adopt systems thinking and system dynamics approaches to construct a conceptual model for hydrogen energy, with a special focus on the pathways of hydrogen use, to assess the potential unintended consequences, and possible interventions; to highlight the possible growth of hydrogen energy by 2050. The results indicate that the combustion pathway may increase the risk of the adoption of hydrogen as a combustion fuel, as it produces NOx, which is a key air pollutant that causes environmental deterioration, which may limit the application of a combustion pathway if no intervention is made. The results indicate that the potential range of global hydrogen demand is rising, ranging from 73 to 158 Mt in 2030, 73 to 300 Mt in 2040, and 73 to 568 Mt in 2050, depending on the scenario presented.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Indexed by Scopus
Uncontrolled Keywords: Emissions; Hydrogen combustion pathway; Hydrogen demand; Hydrogen energy; Hydrogen fuel cell pathway; Nitrogen oxides; Renewable alternative fuel; System dynamics; Systems thinking
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Q Science > Q Science (General)
T Technology > T Technology (General)
T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
Faculty/Division: Institute of Postgraduate Studies
Centre of Excellence: Automotive Engineering Centre
Centre of Excellence: Automotive Engineering Centre

Faculty of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering Technology
Depositing User: Mr Muhamad Firdaus Janih@Jaini
Date Deposited: 28 Dec 2022 02:49
Last Modified: 28 Dec 2022 02:49
URI: http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/33352
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