Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia

Aisyah, Ibrahim and Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir and MacDonald, Roderick H. and Hamdan, Daniyal (2023) Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia. In: 2023 IEEE 8th International Conference On Software Engineering and Computer Systems (ICSECS) , 25-27 August 2023 , Penang, Malaysia. pp. 200-204.. ISBN 979-8-3503-1094-8

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Abstract

This paper presents the manual calibration effort for the System Dynamics (SD) COVID-19 model for Malaysia. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 SD model based on the COVID-19 scenario in Malaysia. The SD model consisted of nine compartments and was adapted based on a standard disease SEIR model using Vensim software. While the development of the model is still ongoing, an initial validation was carried out between ‘Actively Infected’ and the case data gathered from the Malaysia Ministry of Health's official COVID-19 websites. During this period, the parameters were manually adjusted by hand to align the model's output with the actual data. The expected outcome was not easy to achieve, but the result was acceptable. It is important to note that the lack of such strategies may compromise the model’s validity due to uncertainty. This paper also discusses the challenges posed by hand calibration, the lessons learned during this work, and the potential future implications of this work.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Hand Calibration, Model Validation, Uncertainty, System Dynamics, COVID-19 in Malaysia.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Faculty/Division:	Institute of Postgraduate Studies Faculty of Computing Faculty of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technology
Depositing User:	Miss Amelia Binti Hasan
Date Deposited:	29 Sep 2023 09:48
Last Modified:	29 Sep 2023 09:48
URI:	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716
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